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2024-12-14 00:19:46

After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.In November, Sichuan CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the price increase of pork and fresh vegetables dropped from the previous month. On December 10, the data released by the Sichuan Survey Corps of the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in Sichuan rose by 0.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. It decreased by 0.7% from the previous month. From January to November, the consumer price of Sichuan residents decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period of last year. In terms of food, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 1.8% year-on-year in November, and the growth rate dropped by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the prices of pork and fresh vegetables increased by 15.2% and 14.0% year-on-year, respectively, and the growth rate dropped from last month; The price of fresh fruit changed from a year-on-year increase of 3.4% last month to an increase of 2.0%; The prices of eggs and aquatic products decreased by 1.6% and 0.6% respectively. From the ring comparison, the price of food, tobacco and alcohol decreased by 1.9% from 0.3% last month, mainly because the average temperature in November was higher than that in previous years, which was beneficial to the production, storage and transportation of agricultural products, and most fresh food prices were affected by the super-seasonal decline.Diplomat: The EU envoy failed to reach an agreement on the 15th round of sanctions against Russia.


Zhangjiang Haoxin, the service platform of Pudong IC industry, was officially unveiled. On December 11th, Shanghai IC Industry Development Forum 2024 and the 30th IC Design Exhibition were held in Pudong, Shanghai. At the meeting, Professor Wei Shaojun, Chairman of Integrated Circuit Design Branch of China Semiconductor Industry Association, and Wu Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of Pudong District Committee and deputy head of the district, jointly unveiled Shanghai Zhangjiang Haoxin Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Zhangjiang Haoxin), which will add new momentum to the development of integrated circuit industry in Shanghai and even the whole country and promote the higher quality development of regional integrated circuit industry.Brent crude oil exceeded $73/barrel, up 1.57% in the day.UN Secretary-General Guterres: I fully believe that the Syrian people can choose their own destiny.


Colombia's consumer confidence index in November was -5.7, and the forecast was -4.8.Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Since September, Iran has issued a warning to the Assad government about the threat, but it has ignored the "enemy".Traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut. After the CPI report was released, swap traders increased their bets on the Fed's interest rate cut before the end of 2025. They now predict that by that time, they will cut interest rates by 87 basis points, which means that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week. In 2025, there will be another two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points each time, which is less than the four times proposed by Fed officials in the latest quarterly bitmap in September.

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